World Bank: UAE and Jordan Face Highest AI Job Substitution Risk in Middle East; Coursera Generative AI Enrolments Up 344%

The World Bank's October Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan Economic Update says the UAE and Jordan have the largest share of jobs at risk of AI substitution in the region, while Afghanistan and Pakistan have the smallest. Substitution risk covers no more than about 10 percent of jobs regionally, while 13 to 20 percent have potential for AI to raise productivity. The UAE shows above-average AI use in 9 of 22 occupation groups, and Coursera generative AI course enrolments grew 344 percent year on year, with women accounting for only about one-fifth to one-quarter of enrolments in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt.

The report places AI talent supply and shifting employment structure in one framework, directly affecting AI curriculum design, skills training direction and talent policy in the Middle East. For education systems, the coexistence of 344 percent generative AI enrolment growth and low female participation shows demand expansion and uneven access occurring together; for products and practitioners, occupation-group substitution and productivity data can inform target audiences for courses and tools. The estimates rest on an Anthropic conversation sample, and the authors caution it may overstate gains, so the findings still need independent verification. Universities and training providers in the Middle East can use occupation-group substitution and productivity data to adjust AI curricula and skills training. The coexistence of generative AI enrolment growth and low female participation will push AI education programmes designed for female learners.